Some Random Thoughts on the Coronavirus and the Future

Last night I saw a news segment about the folks in Italy and how life is changed forever in one town where a whole generation of elders has been prematurely taken from their families by the virus. We all know that death is part of the natural order of things, but it went from a stately march where each elder who passes is given the sendoff they so richly deserve, to a waterfall of sadness for an entire generation swept away at once. And it has left the families without a chance to properly grieve for each individual. It really hit home for me emotionally. So before anything else I want to say that my heart goes out to everyone who has lost someone due to this. Or to anyone who may lose someone going forward. 

Then it made me think about my own situation. My wife and I are both over 60. And I’m experiencing some mobility issues due to a pinched nerve in my back. It’s something I’ve been dealing with for a few years now. Not totally debilitating; I simply can’t do everything I used to do without a second thought. But the bottom line is that this means I am now in an age-and-health bracket that puts me at higher risk than younger, healthier people. So, like most folks in Northern California, we took the shelter in place directive pretty seriously. Let us say we were early adopters. And we’ve tightened things up even more as things have unfolded. 

Given the reality of my situation, I have to say that I’m a bit saddened that I can’t do more. I mean, we have been doing what we can; we are doing everything in our power to make sure we stay healthy ourselves first. Although it may be selfish in some ways, it really is the most important thing we can do for the sake of everyone right now. As my NERT (Neighborhood Emergency Response Team) training drilled into me, NERTS don’t get hurt. In other words, don’t make the problem worse by doing something stupid. So we’re hunkered down like everyone else. We do the little things we can do; we’ve been dropping off food to home-bound friends and we have helped our neighbors by picking up some stuff for them at the store. We also donated a couple of boxes of N95 masks we had from the last fire season. When I dropped them off at the nearest hospital collection center, I said I was sorry there were only 20. The guy there said, “You just helped 20 people stay safe.” That was a heartening thought. So we will continue to do what we can.

At the same time, I’ve also been thinking about what this all means and what life will be like once we get the coronavirus under control, develop a vaccine, or at least build up the “herd immunity” that will allow us to interact with the world again. In one sense, it feels like Mother Nature, seeing that we weren’t about to make any real changes to the way we live, decided to take matters into her own hands and send us all to our rooms to think about our behavior. (Pardon the anthropomorphism). Hopefully we won’t be like willful teenagers and fail to take  this “timeout” to heart. Because honestly, we’re going to have to make changes in the way we do things going forward. The brakes have been slammed on the wheels of industry. We have a chance to think about how and why we do things and what is truly important. Maybe it is time for a paradigm shift. 

What do I mean by that? Well, for starters, I think we need to change our measure of success for businesses. The current mode of thinking is profit-based and is measured by quarterly results. Everything is geared toward maximizing profits while ignoring long-term consequences, both financially and socially. There is an underlying assumption that a business is not successful if it doesn’t keep growing. But the only thing in nature that never stops growing is cancer. This focus on never-ending growth has spurred the merger and acquisition madness that has driven the corporate world for a number of years and has fostered a very narrow mindset geared toward quarterly results.

If we developed a more comprehensive set of metrics for measuring business success, it would go a long way toward enabling us to not only survive but to thrive. So what would those new metrics entail? For starters, accurately calculating the social and environmental costs of producing goods and services should be included as part of the overall measure of success. Businesses that have a sustainable model and produce predictably steady returns with as little negative environmental impact as possible should be rewarded as enthusiastically as companies are in their growth stage. 

So what does this mean, practically speaking? Let’s look at a specific business. The fossil fuel industry comes to mind in particular, because no matter what happens, it is unlikely that we will return to the same level of travel, either by plane or by cars. Combined with the crash in oil prices, the prospect for the stratospheric profits of the last decade or two may not be possible. Does this mean that we will stop driving entirely? That’s highly unlikely. But it does mean that how much we travel will change. It may even make it reasonable to look at how we travel, and why. We will always need to ship goods from place to place, but we can do this more efficiently. Coordinating shipments and never having a truck return to its point of origin empty would be a good place to start. And in designing or re-designing our cities, we can look to minimize the need to travel by creating “villages” where all your basic needs are available within walking distance. 

This is not a model that will work in rural areas; that’s a given. But we can and most probably will make natural changes to our habits. So while the long-term prospects for unending growth of the fossil fuel industry aren’t rosy, there’s no reason to think that they won’t continue to be a vital part of the economy for the foreseeable future, even as we develop new, more sustainable modes of travel. Horse and buggy gave way to the railroads, and those gave way to cars and trucks. Hybrid, electric, or hydrogen powered vehicles will gradually replace gas guzzlers. And the world will be a better place because of it. We can help to make it happen sooner. 

This is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how things are going to change. And my thoughts are certainly not intended to be an in-depth analysis of the way going forward. I simply want to encourage discussion of how we can not only survive, but thrive. We have been given a chance to slow down, take a deep breath and think about the kind of world we want to leave to future generations. To me, the question is whether we can develop a coherent vision of how we want things to evolve. All I am really suggesting is that we stop and think about things rather than simply trying to return to the way things were and let “the market” figure things out. To a certain degree, that’s going to happen anyway. But with well-thought-out policies, we can nudge development in a more sustainable direction. And with that, I’ll step off my soapbox. For now, at least. Hopefully, we can have a civilized discussion and avoid the polarized food fights that have become the norm. 

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